Philippines unveil 72 billion-peso ($1.7 billion) Stimulus Package

Asian policy makers are bolstering efforts to protect their economies from weakening global growth, as Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates and the Philippines unveiled a stimulus plan.

Bank Indonesia lowered its reference rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.5 percent yesterday, defying the predictions of all 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Philippine President Benigno Aquino announced a 72 billion-peso ($1.7 billion) spending package today as his government cut growth estimates, while Singapore's central bank is forecast by economists to say this week that it will slow or end its currency appreciation.

"We want to be ahead of the curve in anticipating the impact of the global economy," Perry Warjiyo, Bank Indonesia's director of economic research, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. "It will impact through the region, and we will see there is a decelerating trend of inflation and a downward revision to economic growth. Sooner or later, central banks need to rebalance the preference of their monetary policy response."

Emerging-market nations have turned from fighting inflation to supporting growth as a struggling U.S. recovery and deepening European crisis threaten the global economy. Brazil, Turkey, Russia and Pakistan have cut borrowing costs in 2011, while Asian countries from the Philippines to South Korea have refrained from further rate increases in recent weeks.

Taking Insurance

"It's primarily because of the weaker global economic backdrop that they are taking out some insurance against the global economic headwinds," said Leif Eskesen, a Singapore- based economist at HSBC Holdings Plc.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks has slumped 15.4 percent this year as investors pare bets on emerging markets. Some Asian currencies have tumbled against the dollar in the same period, led by a slide of about 9 percent in the Indian rupee, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Indonesia's rupiah has weakened 3.5 percent in the past month. Bank Indonesia said yesterday it has sufficient foreign- exchange reserves to support the currency.

"We are confident we can stabilize the market," Warjiyo said in the interview today.

Asian nations from Malaysia to the Philippines are shifting their focus to shielding growth even as elevated inflation prompts policy makers in countries such as Vietnam and India to persist with monetary tightening.

India's industrial output rose 4.1 percent in August from a year earlier, less than the median 4.7 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey, a report showed today.

Philippine Spending will boost

Aquino said today the additional spending he authorized for the stimulus package includes 5.5 billion pesos for infrastructure. The Philippine government cut its growth forecasts for the Southeast Asian nation for 2011 and 2012.

"If the fiscal stimulus does its job, this should give the necessary push to keep our economic growth in a solid upward trajectory," central bank Governor Amando Tetangco said today. The Philippines has sufficient liquidity, a stable exchange rate and a "manageable" inflation outlook along with "fiscal space" to help support economic growth, he said in an e-mail reply to questions.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will consider global developments, including Indonesia's rate cut and the slump in Philippine exports in next week's policy meeting, Tetangco said.

"In most jurisdictions, inflation seems to have become less of a pressing concern," he said. "The weakness in advanced economies is seen to weigh more on emerging economies than previously anticipated."

The next ASEAN tiger cited by Asia Inc & Business leader could be the Philippines

The Philippines has a most unique economy in the world which is highly dependent on domestic consumption that drives their economy that could be hardly hit for any possible global economic recession. Inspite of rich resources, Philippines did not rely on exports to drive a better and fast forward economy.

The Philippines now tagged with fresh opportunities in Asia, boosting and high grades gold mining, boosting of oil and gas exploration,  good political leader,  revived confidence from global investors and now named as to be Asia’s next tiger economy, potentially regaining the glory lost decades ago, according to a visiting regional business leader from Brunei.

Dato Timothy Ong, a leading Brunei businessman who founded and now chairs regional dialogue platform Asia Inc. Forum, said in a press briefing on last September 26, 2011 that he has seen signs that the Philippines could return to its goal of being the next Asian tiger despite staying at the bottom half of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in terms of economic performance for years.

Ong is also the convener of ASEAN 100 Leadership Forum, which will be hosted by the city of Makati on Sept. 28-29, 2011 at the Makati Shangri-La. This year’s ASEAN meet aims to foster insightful and intelligent discussions on the future of ASEAN and how the region can emerge as one of the world’s significant economic blocs.

According to Dato Timothy  Ong, the Philippines can join the ranks of Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong, the so-called Asian “tiger” economies or newly industrializing countries. He cited five reasons why the country, though a “dark horse,” or a sick man in Asia had the makings of the next move to be the next “tiger.”

The Chair of the regional dialogue platform Asia Inc. Forum cited 5 following reasons why the Philippines could be the next ASEAN Tiger as:

1.      The new leadership under President Aquino has promised to weed out corruption in the country, which has been creating a lot of optimism. It’s widely perceived that the high level of corruption in the country has driven up the cost of doing business.

2.      Mr. Ong said that the Philippines’ would be vast pool of hardworking professionals and skilled manpower, many of whom have been deployed across the globe. “With this wealth of human resources, it’s important to ask then why the Philippines aren’t more successful economically,” he said. Many countries had been dependent on Filipino Professionals and skilled workers to drive their economy like for example banning the Filipino to work in Taiwan will paralyze the Taiwan’s economy. Banning the Filipino to work in the Middle-east might paralyze their economy. Deporting Filipinos in (North Borneo) Sabah might paralyze the Sabah’s economy which the world knew how important the human resources are.  The continues development in the other north Asian countries had been dependent on Filipino skilled workers like for example the Billion Dollar projects of Korea’s builder Hyundai Engineering in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan which been dependent on Overseas Filipino Workers as highly skilled which the builder could not outsource such kinds from the local man power pool in the 2 ‘stan countries. Many Leading fortune 200 companies in the world are talents hungry but the Philippines have vast and awashing man power pool. Many countries take advantage of Filipinos for not just for cheap labor but also trustworthy multi-tasker and English speaker that could compete globally.

3.      The third factor would be the Philippines’ “centers of excellence,” Ong said, noting that the country has become a competitive hub for business process outsourcing. He likened the Makati central business district to a “First World” city in a Third World country.  “If the Philippines is capable of being first world in these centers of excellence, why can’t it be First World in every respect?” he said.

4.      Ong said the fourth reason would be the Philippines’ homegrown companies that were at par with the world’s best.  He cited fast-food giant Jollibee Foods Corp., international port operator International Container Terminal Services Inc. and the Ayala group of companies. “There is a sense of optimism that characterizes the country as a whole.  As the new government takes its steps in leading the country towards change, it may be able to experience higher standards of governance,” he said.

5.      Finally, Ong noted the Philippines’ “sharply improving competitiveness” as another factor supporting its aspiration to be the next tiger economy. He cited recent reports that the Philippines had jumped 10 notches to 75 from 85 in the latest ranking of the World Economic Forum. Ong said this happened only within the first 15 months of the term of the new president.

Meanwhile, Ong said ASEAN would likely partly meet its target to establish an integrated economic community by 2015.

“A One ASEAN is important for our collective future to accelerate the economic growth, social progress and economic stability in the region; to promote active collaboration and mutual assistance in economic, social, cultural, technical and administrative spheres,” Ong said.

“At the moment, Southeast Asia is like a big gated community where neighbors barely know each other. They know each other by name, they exchange pleasantries but they wouldn’t really go out of their way to have dinner at each other’s house,” he said.

Once integrated, he said, ASEAN could be a very influential bloc as it could become Asia’s third-largest economy next to China and Japan and the ninth-largest in the world.

The Philippines hinting to be a the second ASEAN tiger is so closed to achieve.

Philippines Investment Inflows FDI surge 142% in Q1 - Banco Central Sa Filipinas

The Banco Central Sa Pilipinas / Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported  June 9, 2011 that net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows surged 142 percent in March as equity infusion more than doubled while withdrawals declined.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said that net FDI inflows amounted to $167 million Dollar in March or $98 million lower than the $69 million inflows booked in the same month last year.

"All FDI components yielded positive balances during the month," Tetangco stressed.

Data showed that equity placements jumped 113 percent to $64 million Dollar in March from $30 million in the same month last year while withdrawals slowed down by 47 percent to $18 million from $34 million.

The net inflow of other capital account consisting largely of intercompany borrowing between foreign direct investors and their subsidiaries or affiliates in the Philippines jumped 146.2 percent to $96 million in March from $39 million in the same period last year while reinvested earnings fell 26.5 percent to $25 million from $34 million.

In all, Tetangco said net FDI inflows retreated by 16.6 percent to $471 million in the first quarter of the year from $565 million in the same period last year due to the tensions in Middle East and North African (MENA) states, the debt crisis in Europe, and the disasters in Japan.

"Investors remained cautious on account of the uncertainties brought about by the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe, the political unrest in the MENA region as well as the disasters that struck Japan," the BSP chief stressed.

Equity placements retreated by 7.6 percent to $121 million from January to March compared to $131 million in the same period last year while withdrawals plunged 53.5 percent to $40 million from $86 million.

Data showed that reinvested earnings plummeted 38.3 percent to $113 million from $183 million while other capital fell 17.8 percent to $277 million from $337 million.

FDI inflows retreated by 12.7 percent to $1.71 billion last year from $1.96 billion in 2009 as equity placements plunged 42.5 percent to $1.15 billion while equity withdrawals increased by 10.8 percent to $307 million.

The drop was attributed to the decline in equity capital investments in new and existing projects as investor sentiment was generally marked by cautiousness and uncertainties surrounding the sovereign debt crisis in some parts of Europe, geopolitical tensions in Korea, asset price bubble and overheating concerns in fast growing emerging markets.

Likewise, the BSP explained that large-scale investments arising from the privatization of a local power corporation and the acquisition of shares of a local beverage manufacturing firm were recorded in 2009.

These included the investment made by China's largest electricity provider State Grid Corp. and Monte Oro Grid Resources Corp. in state-owned National Transmission Corp. (Transco) that bagged a $3.95 billion concession contract as well as the decision of Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings to acquire a stake in Manila-based San Miguel Brewery of diversified conglomerate San Miguel Corp. worth ₱ 65.8 billion.

Monetary authorities are confident that FDIs would continue to pour into the Philippines to fund projects under the Aquino administration's public private partnership (PPP) scheme.

 

WORLD BANK: the Philippines & the Asia Pacific region Dollar remittances higher amid inflation

The Asia Pacific Region – Map (A formation of a standing roaster)

Despite its ballooning inflation rate, the Philippines posted the second highest growth of remittances among developing countries for 2010, the World Bank said in a report released to the Philippine media Tuesday.

In the World Bank Outlook for Remittance Flows for 2011 to 2013, economists Sanket Mohapatra, Dilip Ratha, and Ani Silwal reported that remittances to the Philippines, adjusted for inflation in local currency terms, grew by -1.4 percent in 2010. The top performer in this area was China, which grew by 1 percent.

Published under the World Bank Migration and Development Brief on Monday, the report places these figures in the context of the “quick" recovery of developing countries from the 2008 global financial crisis.

“Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries recovered quickly to $325 billion in 2010 after the global financial crisis," the World Bank explained. “But they have not kept pace with rising prices in recipient countries."

Overall, the World Bank said remittances to developing countries grew 5.6 percent in US dollar terms in 2010, “but grew by a smaller 3.9 percent after accounting exchange rate changes, and fell by 2.7 percent after adjusting for inflation."

In 2010, the Philippines’ inflation rate grew to 3.8 percent from 3.2 percent in 2009, according to the National Statistics Office.

 

Philippines among top recipients

With $21.4 billion in remittances, the Philippines took the fourth largest share of remittances among developing countries in 2010, the WB said. The largest recipient was India with $53.1 billion, followed by China with $51.3 billion, and Mexico with $22 billion. It shows that the strong performing economy of the Philippines tried to race with the Giants Economies like China, India and Mexico.

In US Dollars, the World Bank said remittances to the Philippines grew by 8.1 percent in 2010 — the fourth largest growth in US-dollar terms, next to Vietnam with 17 percent, Lebanon with 11.3 percent and Pakistan with 11.1 percent. The Philippines’ growth in this area ties with that of Egypt.

In local currency terms, the Philippines fared as the 8th among the 10 largest recipient countries in 2010, the World Bank said. The country posted a growth of 2.3 percent in this area, trailing Vietnam, Pakistan, Lebanon, Egypt, Nigeria, China, and Bangladesh.

“The reduction in local currency value of remittances implies hardship for recipients, and increased pressure on migrants to send more to maintain the purchasing power of their remittances," the World Bank noted.

For the East Asia and Pacific region, which includes the Philippines, the World Bank projected a growth of 6.8 percent in remittance inflows last year, 8 percent for 2012, and 9.5 percent for 2013.

“Given the volume of remittances flowing to developing countries, innovative financing tools such as diaspora bonds and remittance-backed bonds are being viewed as potential sources that can finance infrastructure and development projects at lower cost and longer maturities," the World Bank added.

 

Effect of Middle East, North Africa crisis

The multilateral bank also said the effect on migration of the political turmoil in parts of North Africa and the Middle East “appears to have been largely localized within the region."

“Outside the North Africa and Middle East region, the remittance recipient region that could be affected by the crisis is South Asia," the WB said.

However, the bank noted a “lack of reliable and high-frequency data on both migration and remittances during the crisis in North Africa and the Middle East."

“Basic facts on the impacts of the crisis for migrants and recipient countries are simply not available," the World Bank said. “There is urgent need for rapid monitoring systems in both migrant-sending and -recipient countries through improved data collection and dissemination of high-frequency data on migration and remittances."

Earlier this month, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported that overseas Filipino workers’ remittances rose by 5.9 percent in the first quarter of 2011 amid earlier fears of a decline due to the political unrest in Middle East and North Africa, and the disasters in Japan