COMMENTARY: Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?

BY LAWRENCE S. WITTNER

While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.  After all, for centuries national conflicts have led to wars, with nations employing their deadliest weapons.  The current deterioration of U.S. relations with China might end up providing us with yet another example of this phenomenon.

The gathering tension between the United States and China is clear enough.  Disturbed by China's growing economic and military strength, the U.S. government recently challenged China's claims in the South China Sea, increased the U.S. military presence in Australia, and deepened U.S. military ties with other nations in the Pacific region.  According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the United States was "asserting our own position as a Pacific power."

But need this lead to nuclear war?

Not necessarily.  And yet, there are signs that it could.  After all, both the United States and China possess large numbers of nuclear weapons.  The U.S. government threatened to attack China with nuclear weapons during the Korean War and, later, during the conflict over the future of China's offshore islands, Quemoy and Matsu.  In the midst of the latter confrontation, President Dwight Eisenhower declared publicly, and chillingly, that U.S. nuclear weapons would "be used just exactly as you would use a bullet or anything else."

Of course, China didn't have nuclear weapons then.  Now that it does, perhaps the behavior of national leaders will be more temperate.  But the loose nuclear threats of U.S. and Soviet government officials during the Cold War, when both nations had vast nuclear arsenals, should convince us that, even as the military ante is raised, nuclear saber-rattling persists.

Some pundits argue that nuclear weapons prevent wars between nuclear-armed nations; and, admittedly, there haven't been very many—at least not yet.  But the Kargil War of 1999, between nuclear-armed India and nuclear-armed Pakistan, should convince us that such wars can occur.  Indeed, in that case, the conflict almost slipped into a nuclear war.  Pakistan's foreign secretary threatened that, if the war escalated, his country felt free to use "any weapon" in its arsenal.  During the conflict, Pakistan did move nuclear weapons toward its border, while India, it is claimed, readied its own nuclear missiles for an attack on Pakistan.

At the least, though, don't nuclear weapons deter a nuclear attack?  Do they?  Obviously, NATO leaders didn't feel deterred, for, throughout the Cold War, NATO's strategy was to respond to a Soviet conventional military attack on Western Europe by launching a Western nuclear attack on the nuclear-armed Soviet Union.  Furthermore, if U.S. government officials really believed that nuclear deterrence worked, they would not have resorted to championing "Star Wars" and its modern variant, national missile defense.  Why are these vastly expensive—and probably unworkable—military defense systems needed if other nuclear powers are deterred from attacking by U.S. nuclear might?

Of course, the bottom line for those Americans convinced that nuclear weapons safeguard them from a Chinese nuclear attack might be that the U.S. nuclear arsenal is far greater than its Chinese counterpart.  Today, it is estimated that the U.S. government possesses over five thousand nuclear warheads, while the Chinese government has a total inventory of roughly three hundred.  Moreover, only about forty of these Chinese nuclear weapons can reach the United States.  Surely the United States would "win" any nuclear war with China.

But what would that "victory" entail?  A nuclear attack by China would immediately slaughter at least 10 million Americans in a great storm of blast and fire, while leaving many more dying horribly of sickness and radiation poisoning.  The Chinese death toll in a nuclear war would be far higher.  Both nations would be reduced to smoldering, radioactive wastelands.  Also, radioactive debris sent aloft by the nuclear explosions would blot out the sun and bring on a "nuclear winter" around the globe—destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.

Moreover, in another decade the extent of this catastrophe would be far worse.  The Chinese government is currently expanding its nuclear arsenal, and by the year 2020 it is expected to more than double its number of nuclear weapons that can hit the United States.  The U.S. government, in turn, has plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars "modernizing" its nuclear weapons and nuclear production facilities over the next decade.

To avert the enormous disaster of a U.S.-China nuclear war, there are two obvious actions that can be taken.  The first is to get rid of nuclear weapons, as the nuclear powers have agreed to do but thus far have resisted doing.  The second, conducted while the nuclear disarmament process is occurring, is to improve U.S.-China relations.  If the American and Chinese people are interested in ensuring their survival and that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.

* * *

Wittner is Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany. His latest book is "Confronting the Bomb: A Short History of the World Nuclear Disarmament Movement" (Stanford University Press). This commentary was distributed by PeaceVoice a program of the Oregon Peace Institute, Portland, OR.

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South Korea – the Philippines Strengthen ties – SKorea President State Visit -Philippines

The Philippines and South Korea will sign on Monday agreements envisioned to further strengthen overall ties between the two countries.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who arrived in Manila on Sunday afternoon, will officially begin his state visit with a wreath-laying ceremony at the Rizal Shrine in Luneta before proceeding to Malacañang for a meeting with President Aquino.

The two leaders are expected to discuss, among other things, trade and investment opportunities, and tourism, Deputy Presidential Spokesman Abigail Valte said in an interview over dzRB, the government radio, on Sunday.

"There are many tourists from South Korea who come to the Philippines. We also have common interests in trade and investment. We know that the Republic of Korea is our development partner, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure, so we expect the flow of discussions to go around the topics that were mentioned," Valte said.

Filipino businessmen are hoping the state visit would result in a joint communiqué with South Korea in the form of an accelerated version of an economic partnership agreement (EPA).

The joint communiqué should outline initiatives that will further the exchange of trade, investments and people between the two countries, said Donald Dee, vice chairman and treasurer of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI).

"We don't need to negotiate an EPA with Korea because we are already linked in several areas and we already have the Asean-Korea Free Trade Area [AKFTA]. We no longer have barriers when it comes to tariffs and manufacturing. We only need to have a joint communiqué," Dee told the BusinessMirror.

The document, Dee said, should focus on non-tariff barriers, investments, services and a mutual recognition agreement.

Currently, the country's EPA is with Japan. On a regional basis as part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), however, the Philippines has free-trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, China, India, Australia and New Zealand.

Based on the study of the Universal Access to Competitiveness and Trade, which serves as the PCCI think-tank, Dee said merchandise trade between the two countries increased rapidly since the forging of the AKFTA in 2007. Exports to South Korea are up 23 percent and it is now the eighth-largest trading partner of the Philippines.

South Korean investments, on the other hand, went up from less than $100 million in 2007 to $600 million in 2010. Among the top South Korean investors in the Philippines are Hanjin Heavy Industries and Construction, Samsung Electronics Philippines Manufacturing Corp., and Daelim Industrial Co. Ltd.

On the tourism side, Dee said Koreans make up 22 percent of the total foreign visitors to the Philippines.

With the existing complementarities economically and socially, Dee said the Philippines and South Korea could skip the tedious part of negotiating an EPA and proceed to the forging of a joint communiqué.

"We only need to list down all our matching industries and then reconcile our ambitions and expectations," Dee said.

The joint communiqué, he said, should state that South Korea and the Philippines will work together to enhance the economies of both countries.

The two countries will then separately outline their respective commitments on how their ambitions will be achieved in the areas of trade, investments, services and mutual recognition for the practice of professions.

Coinciding with the visit of Mr. Lee, a former CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction, the government has arranged a meeting between the PCCI and the South Korean business delegation at the Manila Hotel on Monday, which the South Korean leader will keynote. President Lee flew in at 1:30 p.m. on Sunday accompanied by his wife, Kim Myun-Ok.

Apart from his Palace engagements, Mr. Lee will also attend a town hall meeting at the Ateneo de Manila University before returning to Malacañang for a state dinner in his honor.

He will depart Manila on Tuesday morning.

Clinton warns against intimidation in South China Sea dispute

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday urged claimants to the South China Sea not to resort to intimidation to push their cause in the potentially oil-rich waters, an indirect reference to China ahead of a regional leaders' summit.

Clinton reiterated that the United States wanted a candid discussion of the maritime dispute, which an Australian think tank warned earlier this year could lead to war, when the leaders gather in Bali, Indonesia, this week.

However, China says it does not want the issue discussed, putting it at loggerheads with the United States once again after they exchanged barbs over trade and currency at last week's meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation forum in Hawaii.

"The United States does not take a position on any territorial claim, because any nation with a claim has a right to assert it," Clinton said in Manila, while marking the 60th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty.

"But they do not have a right to pursue it through intimidation or coercion. They should be following international law, the rule of law, the U.N. Convention on Law of the Sea."

She said disputes in the sea lanes should be resolved through the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defined rules on how countries can use the world's oceans and their resources.

That could embolden Southeast Asia's hand against China, which has said it would not submit to international arbitration over competing claims to the area, believed to be rich in natural resources and a major shipping lane.

China says it has historical sovereignty over the South China Sea and so supersedes claims of other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

"Introducing a contentious subject into the meeting would only affect the atmosphere of cooperation and mutual trust, damaging the hard-won setting of healthy development in the region," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on Wednesday. "That's is beyond any doubt."

Beijing bristles at what it calls U.S. interference and has blamed the maritime tensions on U.S. trouble making.

Estimates of proven and undiscovered oil reserves in the South China Sea range from 28 billion barrels of oil to as high as 213 billion barrels, U.S. figures showed in 2008. Gas deposits could be as high as 3.8 trillion cubic metres, the U.S. Geological Survey has estimated. Both would supply China with energy supplies for decades if proven.

China's resource needs and its risk-taking behaviour over staking its claim in the increasingly crowded sea lanes of the maritime region raise the possibility of armed conflict that could draw in the United States and other powers, the Lowy Institute said in a report in June.

Tensions flared again earlier this year with concerns raised over China's enforcement of its claim in areas also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines, including the cutting of cables on survey ships, threats to ram some vessels and breaches of airspace by military aircraft.

UNITY

On Tuesday, the Philippines criticised its South East Asian neighbours for failing to take a united stand against China.

"ASEAN is now at a critical junction of playing a positive and meaningful role to contribute in the peaceful resolution of the disputes in the South China Sea," said Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario.

Manila wants ASEAN to be able to help resolve sensitive issues without letting them affect bilateral or multilateral relations, he said.

Smaller Southeast Asian claimants view a U.S. presence and a multilateral approach to negotiations as strengthening their stance against China's all-encompassing claim on the sea.

ASEAN and China approved guidelines this year to make a code of conduct agreement signed in 2002 more concrete as they sought to cool tensions.

Indonesia's foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa, suggested claimants to the maritime region should pursue the code of conduct negotiations while apparently chiding China and the United States.

"ASEAN now has a clear scenario and approach. So ASEAN countries will not let the Southeast Asia region become a competition arena for countries who consider themselves as big powers, whoever or whenever they maybe," he told a press briefing.

"We have an interest to make a clear code of conduct (for the South China Sea) so that concerns from non-Southeast Asian countries can be reflected based on the interest of ASEAN countries' national interest," he said.

It was important for ASEAN to promote a break from "a self-fulfilling vicious circle of action and counter-reaction," he added.

Washington says its interest in the rift is to make sure a shipping lane that carries some $5 trillion in international trade a year is kept open and can be freely navigated.

"President Obama will reaffirm our national interest in the maintenance of peace and security in the region and internationally," Clinton said.

She said that included freedom of navigation, the rule of law and unimpeded lawful commerce, with the United States seeing UNCLOS as the overriding framework for territorial disputes.

Philippines Sandwiched by 2 competing superpowers US-China

Philippines’ President Benigno Aquino III will discuss the disputes over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and steps on further strengthening the long-standing economic and defense relations between the Philippines and the United States during his meeting with US President Barrack Obama in Bali, Indonesia where the 19th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit is being held.

The President left at around 8 a.m. on Thursday for Indonesia from the tarmac of the 250th Presidential Airlift Wing at the Villamor Airbase in Paranaque City (Metro Manila).

In his pre-departure speech, the President cited the importance of the regional bloc, which was established in 1967 and is aimed at the "creation of a cohesive, peaceful, stable and resilient region".

In a press briefing at the Courtyard Mariott Bali Nusa Dua Hotel, Presidential Communications Development and Strategic Planning Office Secretary Ramon Carandang said that the United States has been exerting efforts to re-engage itself with the countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Philippines, which the world superpower considers as important partners in economic and political development.

"I think what's very clear is that the United States wants to re-engage itself in the Asia Pacific region, especially now that they're winding down their commitments to other parts of the world.

The Asia-Pacific region has become much more important to them economically and politically. And what we're seeing are manifestations of that increased importance that Asia-Pacific, including the Philippines, is taking and I am sure the discussions between the two leaders will hew to that general theme," he said.

When asked if the Philippines will seek security assistance from the United States on the dispute in the West Philippine Sea, Carandang said that the government has been considering that.

"I think we've been doing what we can already with the West Philippine Sea issue and the American presence here, and the fact that they agree with our position is something that we find helpful," he said.

Carandang added that the government welcomes any assistance from the US, specifically in increasing the maritime defense capabilities of the Philippines.

The bilateral talk betweens President Aquino and Obama is scheduled on Friday as part of the 19th Asean Summit and Related Summits.

Also attending the event are the heads of state of Asean's dialogue partners including Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and United Nations Secretary General BanKi-moon, among others.

The Asean will widen on Saturday into the East Asia Summit which takes in Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, and this year welcomes the United States and Russia.

A major issue

The maritime dispute with China and a debate over whether to reward Myanmar for fledgling reforms are expected to dominate talks during the 19th Asean Summit.

With the eurozone lurching through a debt crisis, raising the specter of Asean's export markets drying up, there is also pressure on the 10-member bloc to speed up the integration of its potentially huge common market.

Obama is coming to Bali as the US rolls out a diplomatic campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power, including plans for up to 2,500 Marines to be deployed in Australia.

Its more robust role, which smaller Asian states welcome as a counterbalance to China, has caused friction with the two powers trading warnings that set the stage for a confrontation at the East Asia Summit.

The US has signaled that it will raise the issue of China's territorial claims over the West Philippine Sea, with its strategic shipping lanes and rich oil and mineral reserves, despite Beijing saying that the topic should be off-limits.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday on a visit to the Philippines, which along with Vietnam has complained that China is becoming more aggressive in asserting its claims, that threats were unacceptable.

"Any nation with a claim has a right to exert it, but they do not have a right to pursue it through intimidation or coercion," she said.

The Philippines, which has led calls for ASEAN to build a united front against China over the dispute, was slammed by China's state-run Global Times on Thursday, which said that it should be punished with trade boycotts and travel bans.

"The way that China punishes the Philippines should not be overdone or elicit regional fears toward China, but it must make the Philippines pay the price," said the paper, known for its nationalistic stance.

Diplomats in Bali have expressed concern that Southeast Asian nations may get squeezed between the competing interests of the two big world powers.

"We must ensure the stability and security of our region," Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said in an opening speech.

"Asean must continue to play a proactive role to facilitate and engage itself in the resolution of issues," he said in an apparent reference to the West Philippine Sea dispute.

Bali, a resort island that is normally a haven for tourism and relaxation, has been transformed for the event, with six warships patrolling off the beaches and 7,000 police and soldiers providing a blanket security presence.

Myanmar issue

The Asean summit also sees the diplomatic debut of Myanmar's new military-backed government, which has surprised observers with a string of conciliatory moves since it was sworn in eight months ago.

The leaders are set to formally approve a plan to allow Myanmar to chair the regional bloc in 2014, despite objections from the United States which said that it was premature.

Myanmar's Information Minister Kyaw Hsan called on the US to recognize what he said were "irreversible" reforms and abandon its economic sanctions, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Thursday.

Kyaw Hsan blamed the sanctions for the country's lack of development and said that they forced Myanmar to be reliant on Chinese companies.

"When we are striving for development, we cannot be choosers -- we have accepted what is best for the country," he added.

The nominally civilian government has held direct talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, freed 200 dissidents, frozen work on an unpopular mega-dam and passed a law giving workers the right to strike.

But rights campaigners say those measures could easily be reversed and that handing Myanmar the diplomatic prize could remove the incentive for more fundamental change in a nation still accused of serious rights abuses.

Asean's leaders will also review stuttering progress on an ambitious plan for a common and barrier-free market by 2015, a task made more urgent by the crisis in major export markets in Europe.

The gaps between the region's economies--which range from the wealthy city-state of Singapore to underdeveloped Laos and Myanmar -- are a formidable barrier to establishing a common market of more than 600 million people.

But Indonesian Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan said on Wednesday that the economic woes in Europe and the US presented an opportunity for Asean to "behave more collectively".

Not contented in Spratlys; China now Claim Palawan islands

During the APEC summit 2011 in Hawaii; China protest the Philippines to use its resources and explore the oils in Palawan and pronounced its claim to the Palawan Islands.

China has claimed new territory less than 50 miles (80 kilometers) from a Philippine province, boosting tensions over potentially resource-rich areas of the South China Sea, but the Philippines has dismissed the claim, an official said Monday.

Energy Undersecretary Jose Layug Jr. told The Associated Press that China protested a Philippine plan to explore for oil and gas in the area in July. It is the closest point in waters off the main Philippine islands that China has claimed in the increasingly tense territorial disputes.

Beijing has been asserting its territorial claims more aggressively as its economic and diplomatic muscle has grown. Its new claims are likely to bolster Philippine resolve to seek a U.N. ruling on the long-simmering disputes, which involve China, the Philippines and four other claimants.

Among the areas being contested is the Spratlys, a chain of up to 190 islands, reefs, coral outcrops and banks believed to be sitting atop large deposits of oil and natural gas, which many fear could be Asia's next flash point for conflict.

The issue is expected to be discussed Wednesday with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The two new areas being claimed by China are not part of the Spratlys, Layug said.

The Chinese Embassy delivered a protest to the Philippine government on July 4 after Manila invited foreign companies to bid for the right to explore for oil and gas in 15 areas. Chinese officials opposed the inclusion of "areas 3 and 4" northwest of Palawan province, claiming they fall under Chinese sovereign territory.

"The Chinese government urges the Philippine side to immediately withdraw the bidding offer in areas 3 and 4, refrain from any action that infringes on China's sovereignty and sovereign rights," China said in a diplomatic note to Manila, adding that the Philippine action "cannot but complicate the disputes and affect stability in the South China Sea."

China told the Philippine government that the planned oil explorations violated a nonbinding 2002 accord that called on claimants to South China Sea territories to stop occupying new areas and avoid action that could spark tension.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said at a regular briefing: "We do not want foreign commerce involved in these kinds of investment and disputes over the South China Sea."

Palawan province, about 510 miles (820 kilometers) southwest of Manila, faces the South China Sea, which is claimed entirely by China.

One of the offshore areas now being claimed by Beijing lies just 49 miles (79 kilometers) northwest of Palawan, while the other is 76 miles (123 kilometers) from the western Philippine province, Layug said.

The Philippine government told China the areas are located well within Philippine waters and are far from any disputed area, officials said.

"The areas that we're offering for bidding are all within Philippine territory," Layug said. "There is no doubt about that."

The two areas are more than 500 miles (800 kilometers) from the nearest Chinese coast, Layug said.

About 50 foreign investors, including some of the world's largest oil companies, have expressed interest in exploring for oil and gas in the Philippines, half of them in the new areas being claimed by China, because of strong indications of oil there, he said.

None of the prospective foreign companies has expressed concern over the territorial disputes, Layug said.

"Of course their issue would be ensuring security and the support of the Philippine government when they are awarded the contract," he said.

In March, two Chinese vessels tried to drive away a Philippine oil exploration ship from Reed Bank, another area west of Palawan. Two Philippine air force planes were deployed, but the Chinese vessels had disappeared by the time they reached the submerged bank.

The Philippines protested the incident, which it said was one of several intrusions by China into its territorial waters in the first half of the year. Vietnam has also accused Chinese vessels of trying to sabotage oil exploration in its territorial waters this year, sparking rare anti-China protests in Vietnam.

A British company behind the exploration at Reed Bank found very strong indications of natural gas and plans to start drilling in about six months, Layug said.

President Benigno Aquino III plans to discuss a Philippine proposal at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit this week in Bali, Indonesia, to segregate disputed South China Sea areas so coastal states can freely make use of non-disputed areas. China has opposed the plan.

Aquino's government also plans to bring the territorial disputes before the United Nations for possible arbitration.

WPS South China Sea tensions rattle China's neighbors

China's growing naval power has encouraged it to be more assertive

Chinese leaders like to talk about their country's "peaceful rise" - and Europe's financial traumas are giving Beijing plenty of scope to assume the role of a benign new force on the world stage.

President Hu Jintao has presented himself as a "friend in need" during encounters with European supplicants while stopping short, for now, of committing China to a specific contribution.

But China has been showing a very different face to countries closer to home in an increasingly tense confrontation over rival claims to the resource-rich waters of the South China Sea.

It is a region where the peaceful nature of China's rise is starting to be questioned as it pushes a long-standing maritime claim that stretches deep into South East Asia.

China have threaten the 2 small neighbors that if the Philippines and Vietnam will not agree with what china's wants, then they will use force. "If these countries do not want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sound of cannons" – [published under  Global Times]

"China is becoming much more confident in the region and there are signs it is becoming giddy with success. It has become much more influential much more quickly than it expected," says Dr Kerry Brown of the Asia Programme at Chatham House in London.

Vietnam and the Philippines in recent months have seen the snarl of a resurgent regional power that is fast losing patience with the gripes of smaller neighbors over maritime borders.

"If these countries do not want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sound of cannons. It may be the only way for the dispute in the sea to be resolved," said the state run newspaper, the Global Times, in a recent editorial.

The Philippines stands remain strong as they said anytime; we are willing to defend our territory in any form of invasion.

Philippines as the highly affected country of china's warning because almost all part of the disputed in the Spratlys is within it 200 Nautical Miles Exclusive Economic Zone become immune of China's threat. They are used to as that what china did often.

If China has successfully invaded the mischief reef and adjacent reef of Mainland Palawan, a province of the Philippines then this time, it not be happen again to any other islands and reefs within 200 Nautical Miles of the County.

China successfully invaded the mischief reef in 1995 when china build a fishermen shelter in the water of the Philippines but when asked; they replied that they are building a fishermen shelter but later the converted it into a military garrison inside the Philippines' territory.

Hard power

Chinese officials have been more restrained in their comments, but foreign ministry spokesmen have issued a series of warnings about what they see as encroachments into Chinese waters.

Beijing says it does want a peaceful solution. But Vietnam and the Philippines say Chinese ships have stepped up harassment of vessels involved in oil exploration and fishing.

China's stance on the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) is making neighbors like Vietnam worried

"The growth of Chinese military spending is beginning to translate into hard power," says John Hemmings, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.

"This is the first major sign that a more confident Chinese grand strategy is emerging. It is in the South China Sea that there is a real risk of discord between the US and China."

The disputes are about oil and gas reserves, lucrative fisheries and sea lanes that are crucial to the giant industrial economies of East Asia. But they also point to a strategic contest with the United States, which has been the dominant military power in the western Pacific since 1945.

"China is driven by a nationalistic agenda - it won't find it easy to make compromises over what are seen as crucial resources, such as energy in the South China Sea"- [Dr Kerry Brown.]

"China has a containment mindset," says Kerry Brown. "It thought that the United States was ceding influence but it sees the US is still active all around its borders from Afghanistan to Japan."

In the latest incident, Beijing responded sharply to an announcement by the American company, Exxon Mobil, of a new oil find off the coast of central Vietnam.

It appears to be well within Vietnam's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. But China issued a now familiar warning that it has indisputable sovereignty to large parts of the sea.

"We hope foreign companies do not get involved in disputed waters for oil and gas exploration and development," said a foreign ministry spokesman. China's insecurity with US & Indian presence in the area shows it weakness and wanting to monopolize and bully the 2 small country; Philippines and Vietnam.

Vietnam vulnerable

China's maritime claim is ill-defined but it resembles a giant U shape extending for more than 1,000km (621 miles) off its southern coast and reaching into what Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei see as their own waters.

It recently warned Indian firms to stay away after they signed exploration agreements with Vietnam. India has nettled its giant neighbor by developing a "strategic partnership" with Vietnam - in China's view an intrusion into its own backyard.

Vietnam appears most vulnerable. Its leaders have been stung into an unaccustomed flurry of foreign visits as they seek help from the region and beyond.

"Vietnam feels out on a limb," says John Hemmings. "It understands that a naval conflict with China could be over very quickly. The Vietnamese are much more exposed than they first thought."

The West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) dispute raises intense passions in Vietnam.

Some believe it will be very hard for China to back down.

"China is driven by a nationalistic agenda, It won't find it easy to make compromises over what are seen as crucial resources, such as energy in the South China Sea," says Kerry Brown.

Whatever its intention, China has succeeded in frightening traditional US allies such as Japan and South Korea firmly back into the American fold, along with a host of new suitors.

US officials have tried to underline their commitment to the region, at a time when some allies are questioning Washington's staying power.

US naval might

It will be years before China's growing military power can challenge the overwhelming naval might of the United States, backed as it is by a network of military bases across Asia.

But China's development of new land based missiles designed to target aircraft carriers is a sign of its fast-growing capabilities.

"I want to make very clear that the United States is going to remain a presence in the Pacific for a long time," said the defense secretary, Leon Panetta, on an Asian visit late last month "If anything, we're going to strengthen our presence in the Pacific."

President Barack Obama is expected to underline this commitment when he hosts Asian leaders at the APEC conference in Hawaii this month.

China may have found in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) dispute an arena to test US resolve and attempt to nudge it out of the region.

If Washington fails to live up to its rhetoric, China's smaller neighbors will have little choice but to accept the new realities of what the US itself is calling the "Pacific Century"

China wary as India looks East – South China Sea

In China, smaller publications in landlocked provinces are a better guide to the actual thinking of the immense cadre of the Chinese Communist Party than the bigger media outlets, especially those in English. The latter usually give a more restrained and sanities assessment of situations, which is why it was a surprise to South Block (home of the Prime Minister's Office and the External Affairs Ministry) to note the harsh language of even leading English-language publications in Beijing ( such as "Global Times") about India's outreach to Myanmar and Vietnam. The ire was mostly against the oil prospecting contracts signed by state-owned Indian companies with their Vietnamese counterparts.

The Chinese media saw this as "interference in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea)", all of which is claimed by China and parts are claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam & Other ASEAN neighbors. The sea has immense deposits of hydrocarbon and other minerals essential to a fast-developing and large economy such as India; hence it is not likely that Petroleum Minister Jaipal Reddy will abandon the joint venture with Vietnam. The policy of Delhi is that the disputes between different countries in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) is a matter for them to settle, but that in the meantime, India will undertake commercial and other transactions with each of the governments whose territories about the sea. Beijing wants all countries to deal only with itself in any such activity; an in effect wants a monopoly over the resources of the Sea.

Apart from the vituperative articles against Vietnam, the Philippines and India written in English-language and Mandarin publications published from China, numerous China-based internet sites have gone much further in their verbal attack on the three Asian neighbors of China. Some have even alluded to the "racial inferiority" of people from India, Vietnam and the Philippines when compared to Han Chinese, and called for them to be slaughtered by military might "in the manner of roadkill" ie animals killed by vehicles while crossing a road. The overwhelming majority of the Chinese people are highly cultured, steeped as they are in a civilization which goes back 5000 years, but clearly there are some who in their thinking resemble followers of Adolf Hitler. Although such arrogant and aggressive voices are almost certainly not representative of the view of the Chinese Communist Party, yet the frequency with which they have appeared in the Chinese media have led to calls to strengthen Indian defenses on the border with China, a border which has been tranquil except for four brief instances since the 1962 war.

Since 2009, the Indian Air Force has moved a squadron of Sukhoi-35s to the China border, while the army has placed nuclear-capable missiles within easy reach of PLA fortifications and concentrations. On both sides of the border, there is hectic increase in activity relating to the creation or the strengthening of infrastructure, although as yet conditions on the Chinese side are far superior. Even in relation to equipment, PLA forces are much better off than their Indian counterparts. They have lighter bulletproof vests, better rifles and night-fighting capabilities, all of which has been documented in a recent issue of "India Today". Where India's military scores lies in the fact that it is battle-hardened. Constant sorties against hostile elements within the borders of the country has improved the fighting capacity of the Indian soldier, and made him or her better able to prevail, even against a better-equipped enemy. In this sense, even NATO soldiers are better prepared for war than troops from countries that have been at peace for long periods, such as China, which last fought a war in 1979 (against Vietnam). In the case of Pakistan as well, its soldiers are battle-hardened as well, because of action seen in numerous conflicts, some within the country.

However, this columnist is among those who believe that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party has the wisdom to avoid war. There is a huge difference between the China since the time Deng took full control of the party in 1981 and the past, when Beijing was involved in the Korean, Indian and Vietnamese conflicts, besides skirmishes across the Taiwan Straits and with (the then) USSR. There is no doubt that Deng Xiaoping was a great statesperson, who is responsible for modern China.

During his time, civilian spending was emphasized and military budgets reduced. Deng made it clear that he favored a policy of peace, and although China was a huge country, took a very conciliatory line on external disputes. He was also searching for a solution to the Sino-Indian boundary dispute when ill-health and age forced him to take a much more reduced role in governance by the start of the 1990s. While his successor Jiang Zemin occasionally adopted a tough line, General Secretary Hu Jintao has reverted to the wise policies of Deng Xiaoping, stressing the importance of harmony in relations between states. However, since China is much richer today than it was during Deng's time, Hu has presided over an immense quantitative improvement in the capabilities and provisioning of the PLA.

The rapid economic growth since China took firmly to the Path of Peace is evidence that conflict may not be the best way to promote the national interest. Those who glibly talk of going to war against Vietnam and India, for instance, ought to examine the condition of China during the 1950s or the 1960s and see it in the 21st century, the second-biggest economy in the world, with $3 trillion worth of cash reserves, almost higher than the rest of the globe combined. Indeed, Sino-Indian trade has zoomed over the past decade, now crossing $60 billion and headed to $100 billion in two years time. In fact, the prospects are for trade between India and China to cross $300 billion in ten years, providing income and employment to millions of people on both sides of the border. This prosperity would be at risk, were there to be the cataclysmic event of a fresh Sino-Indian war.

Both the leaders of India as well as China are aware of the centrality of peace and friendship to the economic health of both countries. Which is why the hotheads who write vituperative essays against the other country are ignored by the top leadership in Beijing or Delhi? Indeed, both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao are to meet in the beautiful island of Bali on November 19, when they attend the East Asia Summit. Both will also be meeting (albeit separately) with President Obama of the US. Such meetings will help ensure that temperatures remain cool and that differences over the South China Sea get resolved peacefully, and in a way that ensures access to resources and economic development for all sides.

M D Nalapat—The writer of this article is Vice-Chair, Manipal Advanced Research Group, UNESCO Peace Chair & Professor of Geopolitics, Manipal University, Haryana State, India.

China’s puppet Cambodia one sided to China for Spratlys

China's influence to ASEAN neighbors remains strong that make the ASEAN countries divided. Cambodia a member of the ASEAN countries shows an approval of china for in return to have a huge investment from them.

Cambodia's economy is still lagging far behind with other ASEAN countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam but the support of Cambodia for the ASEAN decision in connection with the Spratlys dispute is still important.

Cambodia's Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Hor Namhong said that the territorial dispute in the South China Sea should be solved between China and the concerned countries by complying with the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and recent adopted guidelines.

His remarks were made during meeting with visiting Liu Zhenmin, assistant to Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, at the ministry.

"Both sides agreed that the South China Sea issues must be solved out between China and the states involved in the dispute only," Koy Kuong, spokesman for Cambodia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters after the meeting.

"All concerned parties in the South China Sea have to comply with the (2002) DOC and adopted recent guidelines," Hor Namhong was quoted by Koy Kuong as saying to Liu Zhenmin.

DOC is called toothless by the DFA Secretary Del Rosario as he said even China the signatory of the DOC is violating it resulting to a heighten tension  in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea)

DOC and UNCLOS Law will work together as both parties are member of the United Nations and inner conflict which could not be solve by the region must be push to the United Nations ITLOS.

Hor Namhong continued to say that all relevant parties in the dispute have to build mutual trust in order to solve the dispute in the spirits of mutual benefit, peace and friendship.

The Philippines have slacken off  its mutual trust with china after china invaded the Mischief reef near Palawan by building a "said" fishermen shelter then later converted into military garrison. Mischief reef is just adjacent to the Mainland Palawan and within 200 Nautical Miles Exclusive Economic Zone of Palawan, Philippines.

China and ASEAN in July adopted an agreement on the guidelines of implementing the DOC.

The guidelines include some principles that offer directions for implementing the DOC and map out procedural rules for cooperation in the future.

The oil- and gas-rich South China Sea is partially claimed by several Southeast Asian states, including the Philippines and Vietnam.

Meanwhile, Liu Zhenmin said the visit in Cambodia was to strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation in all fields with Cambodia and said China still continued its support to Cambodia in all circumstances.

Cambodia's commitment in supporting China reaped a promise of support and more investment. Cambodia's vulnerable stands for the ASEAN might lead into losing its support from its fellows when china's expansionism attitude diverts' it point to Cambodia to be the next annex state of China.

Both sides also exchanged views on the East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia later this month in order to enable the Summit to run smoothly and successfully as this year was the 20th anniversary of the establishment of China-ASEAN dialogue relations.

Liu arrived Phnom Penh on Saturday (November 5, 2011) and will leave here on Sunday.

US & Philippines Marines Begin Drills Near Spratlys

About 3,000 U.S. and Filipino marines’ soldiers started two weeks of annual military drills in the Philippines on Monday that will include a hostile beach assault exercise near the disputed Spratly Islands.

U.S. Marine 1st Lt. Nick Eisenbeiser said the Oct. 17-28 maneuvers would focus on honing their joint capability to ensure regional security and were not aimed at China or any country as an imaginary target.

"They shouldn't get worried," Eisenbeiser, when asked if the exercises were aimed at China, who’s growing naval power has set off concerns in the region. "We're assisting the Chinese in ensuring that their region is peaceful."

The exercises would ensure that U.S. and Philippines forces could jointly respond to "anything that arises," he said.

The United States irked Beijing last year by asserting that Washington had a national security interest in the peaceful resolution of the disputes over the Spratly Islands.

The potentially oil-rich islands are located in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea), between Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, and straddle some of the world's busiest sea lanes.

China seeks to resolve the disputes through bilateral talks with five other claimants, including the Philippines. Beijing has rejected any U.S. role in the resolution of the disputes over the islands.

Philippine military spokeswoman 1st Lt. Cherryl Tindog said an Oct. 27 drill will involve a mock raid by about 100 U.S. and Filipino marines from an American warship to capture a hostile beachhead west of Palawan province, which faces the South China Sea.

Other events include a live-fire exercise in Crow Valley in Tarlac province, north of Manila, and medical missions and school constructions in several Philippine towns.

One Filipino-occupied island was proposed as a possible site for joint training but was ruled out to avoid antagonizing China and other claimants. The island lies close to a Spratly reef occupied by Chinese forces and an island separately occupied by Vietnamese forces. The information came from two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to reporters.

Philippines marine Brig. Gen. Eugenio Clemen said the exercises with U.S. forces would be confined to the country's territory so "nobody could question that."

The Philippines and Vietnam, another Spratlys claimant, have separately accused Chinese vessels of intruding into what they say is their part of the contested areas and of disrupting oil explorations in their territorial waters this year.

Both countries have since discussed those allegations with China and renewed calls for the peaceful resolution of the disputes, easing monthslong tensions.

MDT - USA obliged to defend the Philippines in Spratlys against any invasion

The hardest point of America is to stand in between the two roles in the same case and the same issue.   USA is supposed not to take one side on any countries with conflict but America have no escape for the Philippines as they signed an agreement called Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) in 1951 to take effect in 1952. The MDT was signed between US and the Philippines after 5 years of giving independence to the Philippines. The Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) obliged America to defend the Philippines to any External assault or attack to the Philippines' territory.

The binding of the MDT with PHL-US is clear that obliged America to defend the Philippines to any External assault or attack to the Philippines” even spratlys islands is not mentioned since the Spratlys is within 200 Nautical Miles Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines and countries invading the Philippine waters is subject for retaliation from the Philippines' forces and US Forces.

U.S. forces are obliged to help defend Filipino troops, ships or aircraft under a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty if they come under attack in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, Philippine officials said, citing past American assurances.

The potentially oil- and gas-rich Spratly Islands have long been regarded as one of Asia's possible flash points for conflict. China, the Philippines and Vietnam have been trading barbs and diplomatic protests recently over overlapping territorial claims, reigniting tension.

Complicating the issue is the role the United States could play in resolving the disputes. A Mutual Defense Treaty signed by U.S. and Philippine officials in Aug. 30, 1951, calls on each country to help defend the other against an external attack by an aggressor in their territories or in the Pacific region.

Amid renewed tensions in the Spratlys, questions have emerged whether the treaty would apply if ill-equipped Philippine forces come under attack in the islands, all of which are claimed by China. Parts also are claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said in a policy paper that the treaty requires Washington to help defend Filipino forces if they come under attack in the Spratlys, citing U.S. diplomatic dispatches that defined the Pacific region under the treaty as including the South China Sea. The South China Sea was not specifically mentioned in the pact.

A copy of the policy paper was seen by The Associated Press on Wednesday.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario also said in a recent interview that American officials have made clear that Washington would respond in case Filipino forces come under attack in the South China Sea.

Del Rosario said by telephone from Washington that he would discuss the Spratly disputes, along with issues related to the 1951 defense treaty, and other regional security concerns with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton when they meet Thursday.

The U.S. Embassy in Manila declined to discuss details of when the pact would apply.

"As a strategic ally, the United States honors our Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines," said Alan Holst, acting public affairs officer at the embassy. "We will not engage in discussion of hypothetical scenarios."

The defense treaty, which came into force in 1952, defined an attack as an armed assault on "the metropolitan territory of the parties" or their "armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific."

While the U.S. has a policy of not interfering in territorial disputes, the Philippine paper said "it may be construed that any attack on our vessels, armed forces or aircraft in the Spratlys would make the treaty applicable and accordingly obligate the U.S. to act to meet the common dangers."

China has urged the United States to stay out of the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, saying they should be resolved through bilateral negotiations.

On Wednesday, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai warned that Washington risks getting drawn into a conflict should tensions in the region escalate further.

Washington views the sea lanes in the area as strategically important.

"If the United States does want to play a role, it may counsel restraint to those countries that have frequently been taking provocative action and ask them to be more responsible in their behavior," Cui said at a briefing.

He later added, "I believe that individual countries are actually playing with fire, and I hope that fire will not be drawn to the United States."

The Philippines has accused China of intruding at least six times in Manila-claimed areas in and near the Spratlys since February. Among the most serious was a reported firing by a Chinese navy vessel on Feb. 25 to scare away Filipino fishermen from the Jackson Atoll.

The Philippines, whose poorly equipped forces are no match for China's powerful military, has resorted to diplomatic protests. President Benigno Aquino III insisted Friday that his country won't be bullied by China and said Beijing should stop intruding into waters claimed by Manila.

The battle for ownership of the Spratlys has settled into an uneasy standoff since clashes involving China and Vietnam killed more than 70 Vietnamese sailors in 1988.

 

USA will support the Philippines' Spratly issue but Doubtful to Filipinos

A United Nations convention is clear on what constitutes sovereign territory, and the United States is prepared to do whatever is asked of it by the Philippines in connection with the South China Sea / West Philippine Sea dispute, US Ambassador Harry Thomas Jr. said Monday (June 13, 2011) in Makati. Thomas Statement is absolutely opposite of the statement of Rebecca Thomson; US spokesperson saying “The US will not support the Philippine Spratly Issue as they are out of the Issue. Even USA is not united of their stands for the Spratlys issue.

 “We will do whatever we’re asked,” Thomas told The STAR during a visit to the newspaper office, when asked if the US would be willing to participate in the settlement of the territorial dispute.

But he quickly added, “What we want to say is right now we believe consistently that is not something for us to do. We have not been asked to do that. And we can’t deal with hypotheticals.”

Later, when pressed about US participation in negotiations, he said, “We have not been invited.”

Thomas spoke as China warned external powers to stay out of the overlapping territorial claims in the Spratly Islands.

Reuters reported Monday (June 13, 2011) from Beijing that the warning was contained in a commentary in the main military newspaper Liberation Army Daily, which is controlled by China’s Communist Party, and where articles are vetted to reflect official thinking.

President Aquino welcomed Thomas’ statement as he noted the military power of China and its huge population.

“We don’t want any hostility to break out,” Aquino said at Malacañang, even as he reaffirmed that islands in the West Philippine Sea are within undisputed Philippine territory under an international convention.

“Perhaps the presence of our treaty partner, which is the United States of America, ensures that all of us will have freedom of navigation, will conform to international law,” Aquino added.

Earlier Monday (June 13, 2011), Thomas said the US would stand with the Philippines in all issues.

“I want to assure you – on all subjects, we in the United States are with the Philippines. The Philippines and the United States are strategic treaty allies. We are partners,” Thomas said at the launching of the US-supported National Renewable Energy Program in Makati City.

“We will continue to consult and work with each other on all issues, including the South China Sea and Spratly Islands,” Thomas said.

The Philippines has protested Chinese military activities in the West Philippine Sea, which is within the country’s territory as defined under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The UNCLOS, Thomas said, is “pretty clear on what is Philippine territory.”

Thomas mentioned that US President Barack Obama has said Washington supports the 2002 Code of Conduct in the South China Sea under UNCLOS.

Among other things, the Code of Conduct calls for all claimants to sit together and settle the dispute, he said.

President Aquino is so thankful

President Aquino welcomed Thomas’ declaration.

“We are grateful to the (US), especially when they reiterated that we are strategic partners, we have a treaty between us,” Aquino said when asked for his reaction to Thomas’ statement in a press briefing later at Malacañang.

The President stressed the importance of adhering to international laws, specifically UNCLOS.

“What that law says is that you have exclusive economic authority or exclusive economic zone extending 200 (nautical) miles from your continental shelf,” Aquino said.

“Reed (Recto) Bank, which is the subject of incidents lately, is located 80 (nautical) miles off Palawan, the closest of our contention in the Spratlys, the closest China (has) is 576 (nautical) miles if I remember correctly - 576 is obviously greater than 200,” he added.

“Why should there be a dispute if we are conforming to international law?” Aquino asked.

“Of course, they are a superpower, more than 10 times our population, we don’t want any hostility to break out. Perhaps the presence of our treaty partner which is the United States of America ensures that all of us will have freedom of navigation, will conform to international law,” the President said.

Deputy presidential spokesperson Abigail Valte said in a press briefing that the statement of the US ambassador “reaffirms even more our commitment to finding diplomatic and a peaceful resolution on the issues that we have in the West Philippine Sea.”

Valte said the statement was welcome because “everybody knows that we always have good relationship with the United States and so with other countries as well, even if we have issues with them.”

But Valte said there was no need to elaborate on the kind of assistance that the US is prepared to offer in the event of armed hostilities with China.

“We are in the process of trying to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict that we are in the middle of. So we do not want to make any statement that would be contrary to that position,” she said.

“I think with or without that clear statement, we have always been firm on our position on the issue. I don’t think anybody can doubt our resolve to have a resolution, a peaceful and diplomatic resolution on the issue,” Valte said.

“Our resolve cannot be questioned and that we will do so, we will pursue such resolution through diplomatic moves,” Valte said.

Valte said there should be no talk of military assistance yet because all claimant-countries were talking and seeking a peaceful resolution to the issue.

Chinese Ambassador Liu Jianchao said on Saturday that “military means” was not an option for China.

Authorities have recorded six to seven incursions into Philippine-claimed areas by Chinese vessels and aircraft.

Drilon appeal for Peace in Spratlys

Sen. Franklin Drilon, an administration ally, called for an end to incendiary statements on the West Philippine Sea issue.

“All sides should exercise calm and avoid issuing statements because this is a very sensitive issue. We must defend our sovereignty but we must also be very careful in issuing statements,” Drilon said.

Drilon emphasized that only the Department of Foreign Affairs should be allowed to issue statements because the issue involves diplomacy and foreign relations.

Drilon also said the country’s relations with China cannot be easily set aside. He was apparently referring to a call by Albay Gov. Joey Salceda for a boycott of Chinese products.

He also stressed that the issue should be discussed multilaterally, or taken up before the International Court of Justice.

The Philippines and other countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), he added, may take a united stand against China’s alleged bullying.

“This cannot be resolved on a bilateral or one-on-one basis. China is too big so the discussions should be multilateral, meaning the claimants in ASEAN should form a body to face China,” Drilon said.

Senate committee on foreign relations chair Loren Legarda also pushed for diplomacy in resolving the issue.

“It is to the region’s and the international community’s collective interest that the parties remain committed to exploring ways for building trust and confidence on the basis of equality and mutual respect,” Legarda said.

Cagayan Rep. Juan Ponce Enrile Jr., for his part, called for sobriety.

“Let the concerned agencies do the talking instead of (Palace) spokespersons who may not have a full grasp of West Philippine Sea, diplomacy, conflict management, and negotiations,” he said.

“When it comes to foreign policy, we should speak with one voice. We cannot compromise our foreign relations from interpretations made by spokespersons who muddle the handling of a potential conflict,” he said.

Enrile decried the apparently contradictory statements made by presidential spokesman Edwin Lacierda and Valte, his deputy, on the Spratlys issue.

He said that while Lacierda was quoted as saying that the country is “committed to a multilateral approach to the resolution of claims in the Spratlys,” Valte invoked the RP-US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).

Enrile said the agencies that should speak for the country on the issue are the DFA and the Department of National Defense.

Enrile’s father, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, Sen. Joker Arroyo and other senators have expressed doubts on whether the MDT can compel the US to help the Philippines in case of an armed confrontation with China.

Enrile said the best way to resolve the conflict would be through negotiations under the framework of the UNCLOS.

Boycott All Chinese Product

Rep. Enrile also chided Salceda for calling for a boycott of Chinese-made goods. Salceda belongs to the ruling Liberal Party.

“Why on earth are we calling for a boycott of Chinese goods? China is bigger than the Philippines in terms of consumer market, so how can we, as a neighbor, even contemplate about it?” he asked.

“As responsible elected officials, we should refrain from instigating a trade war with the third biggest buyer of Philippine exports. The saber rattling is uncalled for. Let’s put a stop to that,” Rep. Enrile said.

“We should instead focus on setting up our national coast defense system to protect our baselines and buy and patronize Filipino products so that we help our economy,” he said.

Sen. Ralph Recto also slammed Salceda for his boycott call.

“The right response is to increase our trade and investments with China and perhaps, maybe with the right growth formula, we can get even economically years from now,” he added.

He said that it would be a “big economic victory” for the Philippines if it closes its $900-million trade deficit with China.

The country imported $7 billion worth of goods from China in 2010 as against its exports of a little over $6 billion.

Recto likewise noted that as part of the emerging economies and touted by respected global bodies as among the Top 25 countries with strong economies by 2025, the Philippines should “act accordingly” and should not be “boycott happy.”

“We should not only engage China diplomatically but also through business,” Recto stressed.

“The Spratlys question should be settled peacefully. You can’t be saber rattling with China. It’s our biggest trading neighbor,” Recto said.

“An action like that (boycott call) has repercussions. They can tell all you Filipino people in China, go home. They can call for a boycott of all Filipino products. I don’t know who will lose in this one. So we should take it easy,” Sen. Enrile said.

Recto said the Armed Forces of the Philippines should beef up its arsenal and capability “not for arms race but to protect our coral reefs and fishermen.”

Recto said the AFP should start buying modern equipment and fleet.

“We should start buying some of these equipment and I don’t care if we buy them from China,” he said.